The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing CO_dos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.

Introduction

There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO₂ emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .

Program character modeling off urbanization lower than energy restrictions when you look at the China

Though urban extension carry out accelerate energy use 17,18,19 , brand new automotive energy use does correlate negatively to the urbanization peak due to economies from size 20,21,twenty two . Including, so much more urbanized portion from inside the Canada consumed lower for each and every capita energy 23 . Concurrently, full times consumption of rural domiciles are larger than regarding urban house, just like the more than 85% of outlying households play with ineffective solid-fuel 24 . According to Customers Investigation System, 275 urban centers international use hydropower, 189 locations play with piece of cake strength, and you can 184 metropolises have fun with solar solar pv power. At the very least a hundred towns fool around with renewable energy to get to 70% out of strength, instance Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and you may Nairobi. In the usa, 58 urban centers, including Atlanta and you may San diego, enjoys intentions to change in order to 100% tidy and renewable power. Towards the established tech and effort sites, it is likely to localmilfselfies ne demek go one hundred% renewable energy also have international and you will get to zero carbon emissions by 2025. The global power generation framework into the 2050 is expected because lower than: solar photovoltaic (69%), breeze stamina (18%), hydropower (8%), and you will biomass (2%), having opportunity shops battery packs level 30% out-of fuel demand. It’s indexed that most of world’s biggest dams and you will stamina herbs are located in China, whenever you are Yunnan Province and you will Guizhou State lead 30% out of China’s hydropower. This new Jinsha Lake alone possess a beneficial 9-height dam. The brand new fuel produced by these types of hydropower is actually physically transmitted so you’re able to Guangdong and you may Hong kong from the high-current grid. As a result of the numerous hydropower tips designed for air conditioning, Guizhou Province has become China’s foremost data center base. Within the 2018, Apple Business created the newest iCloud analysis cardio within the Guizhou. Pretty much every high They business out of Asia has actually put up data stores during the Guizhou, including Alibaba, Huawei, and you will China Mobile.

Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO₂ emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO₂ emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.